3
Exponentially
5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 53
Thistledown · Race 3 - Allowance · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-28 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-22 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-03-18 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-03-02 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2024-11-06 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 525% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength79%
Delivery trend +2.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 5. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/11/2024 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 02/03/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 18/03/2026 | 4th | 7/4 | 91% | 57% | -0.34 |
| 22/04/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |
| 28/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 71% | -0.17 |