1
Kingdom Trails
4yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 77
Thistledown · Race 3 - Allowance · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
92%
Place Prob
75%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 2.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-08-25 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-06-30 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-07 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-03-30 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 575% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength72%
Delivery trend -0.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/02/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 26/02/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 12/03/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 30/03/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 07/05/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 43% | +0.27 |
| 30/06/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 17/08/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 25/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 71% | +0.19 |
| 07/09/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 86% | +0.00 |