5
Lil Sharpie
3yo Filly · 8-3 · OR 66
Thistledown · Race 3 - Allowance · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-08-05 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-05-12 | Thistledown | ? | 9th | 12th | −3 |
| 2026-04-20 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-04-08 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-16 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 50% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength58%
Delivery trend -2.6% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/01/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 04/02/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 26/02/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 16/03/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 08/04/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 20/04/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 57% | +0.31 |
| 12/05/2026 | 9th | 7/1 | 63% | 11% | -0.52 |
| 05/08/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |
| 15/09/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |