2
Tipsy Tulip
3yo Filly · 8-3 · OR 66
Thistledown · Race 3 - Allowance · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
8/5
Win Prob
8%
Place Prob
23%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 1.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-08-05 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 5100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▬
Strength94%
Delivery trend -1.4% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 1st of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 05/08/2026 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 15/09/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |