Credit Check
4yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 61
Thistledown · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
9/5
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 3.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-07-07 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2026-05-18 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-04 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/02/2026 | 7th | 10/11 | 95% | 0% | -0.95 |
| 19/03/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 80% | -0.10 |
| 07/04/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 04/05/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 18/05/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 40% | -0.21 |
| 08/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 07/07/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 03/08/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 17/08/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |