1
Diamonds N Dew
9yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 63
Thistledown · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
95%
Place Prob
77%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength30%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-19 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-09 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-12-22 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength33%
Delivery trend -5.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/10/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 04/11/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 83% | +0.15 |
| 13/11/2025 | 6th | 4/5 | 96% | 17% | -0.79 |
| 22/12/2025 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 83% | -0.08 |
| 09/02/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 89% | +0.07 |
| 19/02/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 02/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 80% | -0.13 |
| 16/05/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 07/09/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |