4
Rollin Freedom
5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 62
Thistledown · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength30%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-20 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength75%
Delivery trend -1.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/11/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 09/12/2025 | 3rd | 4/7 | 97% | 60% | -0.37 |
| 05/02/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 20/02/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 75% | +0.14 |
| 17/06/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 30/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |
| 30/07/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 29% | -0.48 |
| 17/08/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 40% | -0.28 |
| 02/09/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |