5
Shakeurskinnylegs
6yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 65
Thistledown · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Thistledown | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-02 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength58%
Delivery trend +0.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08/2025 | 8th | 4/1 | 79% | 13% | -0.66 |
| 20/08/2025 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 22/09/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 02/10/2025 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 08/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 17/06/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 14/07/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 30/07/2026 | 8th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 03/09/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 20% | -0.51 |