6
The Kid's Prayer
6yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 48
Thistledown · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength19%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Thistledown | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Thistledown | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-28 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 5-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -6.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/09/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |
| 29/09/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 15/10/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 28/10/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 12/05/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 01/06/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 22/06/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 01/07/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 17% | -0.62 |
| 22/07/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |