Austrian Navy
8yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 79
Thistledown · Race 5 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 2.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-07-14 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-06-30 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-02 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/02/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 20/03/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 26/04/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 18/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 75% | -0.18 |
| 02/06/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 30/06/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 14/07/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 05/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |
| 02/09/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |