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2

Belle Bottoms

4yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 83

Thistledown · Race 5 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

64%

Place Prob

46%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength55%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.8 /10 (raw 2.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC7 @ Thistledown 02/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 79 · 6f Fas 117 · below its mark02/10/2025 · OR 79 par2/10C7OR 79C5 @ Mahoning Valley 29/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 75 · 5f 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/10/2025 · OR 75 parC5 @ Mahoning Valley 24/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 80 · 6f 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/11/2025 · OR 80 par24/11C5OR 80C5 @ Thistledown 22/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 81 · 6f Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/04/2026 · OR 81 parC5 @ Thistledown 11/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 82 · 6f 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/05/2026 · OR 82 par11/05C5OR 82C5 @ Thistledown 22/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 79 · 5f110y 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/06/2026 · OR 79 parC5 @ Thistledown 13/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 79 · 6f 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/07/2026 · OR 79 par13/07C5OR 79C5 @ Thistledown 04/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 78 · 6f 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/08/2026 · OR 78 parC6 @ Thistledown 02/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 81 · 6f 123 · below its mark02/09/2026 · OR 81 par2/09C6OR 81projClass-projected finish: 1st of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02Thistledown?2nd2nd0
2026-08-04Thistledown?1st0th+1
2026-07-13Thistledown?2nd1st+1
2026-06-22Thistledown?3rd2nd+1
2026-05-11Thistledown?1st0th+1
2026-04-22Thistledown?5th4th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/1022/0413/072/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength93%

Delivery trend +5.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/10/20256th4/179%0%-0.79
29/10/20252nd4/179%89%+0.10
24/11/20253rd2/189%67%-0.23
22/04/20265th15/261%0%-0.61
11/05/20261st10/382%100%+0.18
22/06/20263rd11/893%50%-0.43
13/07/20262nd5/174%86%+0.12
04/08/20261st10/382%100%+0.18
02/09/20262nd10/1195%67%-0.29