6
Dance My Way
7yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 76
Thistledown · Race 5 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength22%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-21 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-03-08 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-02-08 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 11th | 13th | −2 |
| 2026-01-02 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-12-14 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 8th | 10th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength32%
Delivery trend -1.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08/2025 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 08/09/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 14/10/2025 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 14/12/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 02/01/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 08/02/2026 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 08/03/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 44% | +0.18 |
| 21/04/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 25% | -0.51 |
| 02/09/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |