4
One Smokin' Rita
6yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 92
Thistledown · Race 5 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-07-15 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-30 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-05-06 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-20 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-09 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength29%
Delivery trend -5.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/08/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 10/09/2025 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 02/10/2025 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 33% | -0.61 |
| 09/04/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 20% | -0.48 |
| 20/04/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 06/05/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 30/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 67% | -0.24 |
| 15/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 27/08/2026 | 7th | 15/8 | 90% | 0% | -0.90 |