The Sweaty Fox
7yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 94
Thistledown · Race 5 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
29%
Place Prob
31%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-24 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-06-11 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-05-20 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-02-26 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2024-12-10 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2024-11-25 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -7.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/2024 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 13/08/2024 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 26/09/2024 | 1st | 3/10 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 25/11/2024 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 10/12/2024 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |
| 26/02/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 20/05/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 11/06/2025 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 24/06/2025 | 5th | 13/8 | 91% | 0% | -0.91 |