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3

Unchained Spirit

3yo Filly · 8-5 · OR 76

Thistledown · Race 5 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f

#5

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength58%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Mahoning Valley 08/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 54 · 1m Fas 116 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/04/2026 · OR 54 par8/04C5OR 54C5 @ Thistledown 20/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 64 · 5f110y 115 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/04/2026 · OR 64 parC5 @ Thistledown 02/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 62 · 1m Slo 115 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 62 par2/05C5OR 62C5 @ Thistledown 20/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 63 · 1m Slo 115 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/05/2026 · OR 63 parC5 @ Thistledown 23/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 65 · 6f Fas 115 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/06/2026 · OR 65 par23/06C5OR 65C5 @ Thistledown 06/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 66 · 1m 115 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 66 parC5 @ Thistledown 27/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 63 · 1m Fas 115 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/07/2026 · OR 63 par27/07C5OR 63C5 @ Thistledown 08/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 74 · 1m 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 74 parC6 @ Thistledown 02/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 71 · 6f 119 · below its mark02/09/2026 · OR 71 par2/09C6OR 71projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02Thistledown?3rd3rd0
2026-08-08Thistledown?1st0th+1
2026-07-27Thistledown?1st0th+1
2026-07-06Thistledown?5th4th+1
2026-06-23Thistledown?3rd2nd+1
2026-05-20Thistledown?3rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/0420/0527/072/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength99%

Delivery trend +3.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/04/20265th9/153%0%-0.53
20/04/20263rd16/116%71%+0.56
02/05/20263rd15/261%60%-0.01
20/05/20263rd9/153%50%-0.03
23/06/20263rd16/116%67%+0.51
06/07/20265th16/116%20%+0.04
27/07/20261st9/153%100%+0.47
08/08/20261st12/137%100%+0.63
02/09/20263rd6/168%33%-0.35