1
Charisma In Motion
3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 51
Thistledown · Race 6 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
27%
Place Prob
30%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength16%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-30 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-01-17 | Turfway Park | ? | 11th | 12th | −1 |
| 2025-12-28 | Turfway Park | ? | 12th | 13th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +10.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/12/2025 | 12th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 17/01/2026 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 30/07/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 80% | +0.64 |
| 25/08/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 08/09/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |