2
Hero Queen
5yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 42
Thistledown · Race 6 - Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-07 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-02-23 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-02-05 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-01-07 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength32%
Delivery trend -4.9% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/08/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 20/10/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 07/01/2026 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 05/02/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 23/02/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 07/04/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 30/07/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 08/09/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |