5
Power Party
4yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 64
Thistledown · Race 6 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
9/5
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength32%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-09-01 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-07-02 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength90%
Delivery trend -3.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/04/2025 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 30/04/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 29/05/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 25/10/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 60% | +0.34 |
| 02/07/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 27/07/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 12/08/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 01/09/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 60% | -0.26 |
| 08/09/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |