Proud Words

4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 51

Thistledown · Race 6 - Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

45%

Place Prob

39%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark

Move▬

Strength55%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.8

Today:

Class gap: +0.7

Higher-class runs: 4

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-10	Thistledown	?	1st	2nd	−1	7.8
2026-08-25	Thistledown	?	6th	7th	−1	2.8
2026-06-17	Thistledown	?	6th	4th	+2	5.8
2026-04-30	Charles Town	?	5th	3rd	+2	6.8
2026-04-10	Charles Town	?	5th	3rd	+2	6.8
2026-03-13	Charles Town	?	2nd	0th	+2	9.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength42%

Delivery trend -5.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
08/01/2026	5th	12/1	37%	43%	+0.06
06/02/2026	2nd	33/1	0%	89%	+0.89
26/02/2026	4th	9/2	76%	40%	-0.36
13/03/2026	2nd	13/8	91%	75%	-0.16
10/04/2026	5th	14/1	26%	43%	+0.17
30/04/2026	5th	10/1	47%	33%	-0.14
17/06/2026	6th	9/1	53%	17%	-0.36
25/08/2026	6th	13/8	91%	29%	-0.63
10/09/2026	1st	6/1	68%	100%	+0.32