3
Red Delicious
6yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 54
Thistledown · Race 6 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-06 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-19 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-29 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-04-01 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-01-07 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▬
Strength78%
Delivery trend +1.7% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 5th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07/2024 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 30/07/2024 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 20% | -0.51 |
| 23/09/2024 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 07/01/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 01/04/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 29/09/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 19/03/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 60% | +0.34 |
| 06/04/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |
| 14/09/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 43% | +0.27 |