4
Yalorde
3yo Filly · 8-3 · OR 59
Thistledown · Race 6 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
27%
Place Prob
30%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-09 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-05-20 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 2-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength58%
Delivery trend -5.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 12/10/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 13/05/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 20/05/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 09/06/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 25/06/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 30/07/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 83% | +0.15 |
| 12/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |
| 08/09/2026 | 4th | 11/8 | 93% | 40% | -0.53 |