1
Basovak Star
3yo Gelding · 8-1 · OR 56
Thistledown · Race 7 - Catlaunch Stakes · 1m 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-08-27 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-08-13 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-07-23 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-07-07 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-06-20 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength50%
Delivery trend -0.3% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 6th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/05/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 02/06/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 63% | +0.10 |
| 20/06/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 07/07/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 89% | +0.63 |
| 23/07/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 43% | -0.40 |
| 13/08/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 57% | -0.11 |
| 27/08/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 10/09/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |