2
Casual Attire
6yo Gelding · 8-5 · OR 88
Thistledown · Race 7 - Catlaunch Stakes · 1m 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-20 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-01-13 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-12-22 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-11-24 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-25 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-07-08 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength53%
Delivery trend +3.3% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/02/2025 | 4th | 13/8 | 91% | 50% | -0.41 |
| 27/02/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 16/06/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 08/07/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 14% | -0.23 |
| 25/09/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 63% | +0.10 |
| 24/11/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 86% | +0.09 |
| 22/12/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 13/01/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 60% | -0.28 |
| 20/06/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 44% | +0.08 |