7
Momma K's Boy
5yo Gelding · 8-5 · OR 90
Thistledown · Race 7 - Catlaunch Stakes · 1m 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
28%
Place Prob
25%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: -1.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-08-11 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-07-20 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-06-20 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-02 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength74%
Delivery trend +0.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10/2025 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 29/10/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 63% | -0.16 |
| 24/11/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |
| 02/05/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 25/05/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 33% | -0.30 |
| 20/06/2026 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 89% | +0.89 |
| 20/07/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 11/08/2026 | 5th | 15/8 | 90% | 20% | -0.70 |
| 01/09/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |