5
Red Chips
5yo Gelding · 8-5 · OR 88
Thistledown · Race 7 - Catlaunch Stakes · 1m 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲3
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: -3.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-08-11 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-07-20 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 10th | −3 |
| 2026-04-27 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-01-12 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 7th | −3 |
| 2025-11-13 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 5th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength88%
Delivery trend +5.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09/2025 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 17% | -0.66 |
| 10/10/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 28/10/2025 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 83% | -0.11 |
| 13/11/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 12/01/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 27/04/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |
| 20/07/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 17% | -0.41 |
| 11/08/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 01/09/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |