3
Ronnis Second Wind
4yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 89
Thistledown · Race 7 - Catlaunch Stakes · 1m 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
52%
Place Prob
34%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength24%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-20 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-11 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-11-24 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-28 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-13 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▲
Strength99%
Delivery trend +3.7% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/01/2025 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 80% | -0.14 |
| 25/06/2025 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 25/09/2025 | 9th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 13/10/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 28/10/2025 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 24/11/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 71% | +0.35 |
| 11/12/2025 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 33% | -0.49 |
| 20/06/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 15/07/2026 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |