6
Shadowy
5yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 94
Thistledown · Race 7 - Catlaunch Stakes · 1m 110y
#8
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-20 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Thistledown | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-01-21 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-11-24 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-30 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-10-13 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength48%
Delivery trend -5.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/2025 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 21/06/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |
| 25/09/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 88% | +0.16 |
| 13/10/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 30/10/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 60% | -0.26 |
| 24/11/2025 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 43% | -0.39 |
| 21/01/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 50% | -0.38 |
| 02/05/2026 | 9th | 11/4 | 86% | 20% | -0.66 |
| 20/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 78% | +0.07 |