8
That's The Way
7yo Gelding · 8-5 · OR 83
Thistledown · Race 7 - Catlaunch Stakes · 1m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
9%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-08-25 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-08-08 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-06-20 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 5-8 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength14%
Delivery trend -5.5% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/09/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 05/11/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 43% | +0.17 |
| 24/11/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 02/05/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 20/06/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 14/07/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 83% | -0.06 |
| 08/08/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 25/08/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 08/09/2026 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 60% | -0.31 |