4
Villian
5yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 92
Thistledown · Race 7 - Catlaunch Stakes · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
9%
Place Prob
15%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 2.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-20 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-24 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-09-25 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-08-14 | Thistledown | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-07-15 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength58%
Delivery trend -2.9% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/11/2024 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 92% | +0.10 |
| 17/12/2024 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 21/06/2025 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 15/07/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 14/08/2025 | 11th | 9/2 | 76% | 9% | -0.67 |
| 25/09/2025 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 24/11/2025 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 02/05/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 20/06/2026 | 4th | 1/2 | 97% | 67% | -0.31 |