Channel Fury
8yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 100
Thistledown · Race 8 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
59%
Place Prob
47%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.2 /10 (raw 2.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-07-09 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | -2th | +3 |
| 2026-06-17 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-05-27 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-05-02 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10/2024 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 30/04/2025 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 19/05/2025 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 02/05/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 60% | -0.06 |
| 27/05/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 25% | -0.51 |
| 17/06/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 20% | -0.62 |
| 09/07/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 12/08/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 02/09/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |