Colonel Vargo
6yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 95
Thistledown · Race 8 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
36%
Place Prob
37%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.2 /10 (raw 2.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-08-24 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2026-08-10 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-07-07 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-06-24 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +0.0% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 1st of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/04/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 21/04/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 33% | -0.48 |
| 11/05/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 24/06/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 07/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 20/07/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 10/08/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 24/08/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 03/09/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |