Mr. Penny Pincher
6yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 96
Thistledown · Race 8 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.1 /10 (raw 3.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2026-06-11 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-03-20 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-02-28 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/12/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 10/01/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 15/02/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |
| 28/02/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 63% | -0.11 |
| 20/03/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |
| 11/06/2026 | 4th | 11/8 | 93% | 40% | -0.53 |
| 21/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 88% | +0.14 |
| 10/08/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 83% | +0.01 |
| 02/09/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |