1
Adir
3yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 60
Woodbine · Race 2 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 7.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-25 | Keeneland | ? | 12th | 13th | −1 |
| 2025-09-19 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +28.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09/2025 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 22% | +0.06 |
| 25/10/2025 | 12th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 16/08/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |