3
Bright Angel
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 77
Woodbine · Race 2 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength18%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-08-23 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-11 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-24 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength77%
Delivery trend +4.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09/2025 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 06/10/2025 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 29% | -0.35 |
| 03/11/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |
| 24/05/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 11/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 83% | +0.20 |
| 06/07/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 02/08/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 23/08/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 13/09/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 78% | +0.41 |