9
Conquer The Storm
5yo Mare · 8-9 · OR 64
Woodbine · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Woodbine | ? | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2025-12-12 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-28 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-11-13 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-10-23 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 3-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength36%
Delivery trend -2.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 04/09/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 02/10/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 23/10/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 91% | +0.44 |
| 13/11/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 77% | +0.06 |
| 28/11/2025 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 12/12/2025 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 20/08/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 04/09/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |