Nile Passage
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 58
Woodbine · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
72%
Place Prob
53%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 6.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-14 | Woodbine | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-07-23 | Woodbine | ? | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-07-05 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Woodbine | ? | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2025-11-29 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11/2025 | 9th | 15/2 | 61% | 11% | -0.49 |
| 29/11/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 23/05/2026 | 10th | 14/1 | 26% | 18% | -0.08 |
| 05/07/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 29% | -0.48 |
| 23/07/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 14/08/2026 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 27% | -0.20 |
| 27/08/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |