Ratings Upgrade
5yo Mare · 8-9 · OR 81
Woodbine · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
26%
Place Prob
32%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-12-07 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 25/10/2025 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 21/11/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 07/12/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 23/05/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 25/06/2026 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 23/07/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 16/08/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 04/09/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |