5
Sunnyville
4yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 64
Woodbine · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-29 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-12-12 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 9-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -5.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 82% | -0.04 |
| 13/11/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 92% | +0.13 |
| 28/11/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |
| 12/12/2025 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 88% | +0.24 |
| 29/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 80% | -0.13 |
| 25/06/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 23/07/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 20% | -0.56 |
| 08/08/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 21/08/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 57% | -0.11 |