2
Tan Toast
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 68
Woodbine · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#8
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength30%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 2.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-08-06 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-18 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 5-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength6%
Delivery trend -35.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 86% | +0.17 |
| 06/08/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 05/09/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |