A Real War Story
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 58
Woodbine · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 1m
#14
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 8.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-08-21 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Woodbine | ? | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2026-06-26 | Woodbine | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +8.5% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 13th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 11% | -0.15 |
| 06/07/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 11% | -0.05 |
| 20/07/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 21/08/2026 | 8th | 15/2 | 61% | 30% | -0.31 |
| 28/08/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |