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13

Battle Warning

3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 65

Woodbine · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 1m

#8

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#8

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼2
Strength76%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 7.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: +2.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Woodbine 13/07/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 6f Fas 118 · HIGHER CLASS13/07C6C6 @ Woodbine 24/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 61 · 7f Fas 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark24/05/2026 · OR 61 par24/05C6OR 61C7 @ Woodbine 05/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 62 · 1m Gd 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark05/07/2026 · OR 62 par5/07C7OR 62projClass-projected finish: 8th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-05Woodbine?6th4th+2
2026-05-24Woodbine?10th7th+3
2025-07-13Woodbine?7th4th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/0724/055/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1462% of fieldRange 3-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength81%

Delivery trend +11.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/07/20257th16/116%14%-0.02
24/05/202610th33/10%10%+0.10
05/07/20266th16/116%38%+0.22