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Border Fox

3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 68

Woodbine · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 1m

#2

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

22%

Place Prob

19%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength79%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: +1.8
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Finger Lakes 11/08/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR - · 5f 120 · HIGHER CLASS11/08C6C6 @ Finger Lakes 06/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR - · 5f110y 122 · HIGHER CLASSC6 @ Finger Lakes 03/11/2025 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 93 · 5f110y Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark03/11/2025 · OR 93 par3/11C6OR 93C7 @ Woodbine 20/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 56 · 5f 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark20/06/2026 · OR 56 parC9 @ Woodbine 26/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 27 · 7f Fas 120 · beat its mark26/06/2026 · OR 27 par26/06C9OR 27C7 @ Woodbine 24/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 37 · 1m Fm 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/07/2026 · OR 37 parC7 @ Woodbine 07/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 52 · 7f110y Fm 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/08/2026 · OR 52 par7/08C7OR 52C7 @ Woodbine 28/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 59 · 1m110y 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/08/2026 · OR 59 par28/08C7OR 59projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-28Woodbine?6th4th+2
2026-08-07Woodbine?2nd0th+2
2026-07-24Woodbine?3rd1st+2
2026-06-26Woodbine?10th10th0
2026-06-20Woodbine?4th2nd+2
2025-11-03Finger Lakes?9th6th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/0820/067/0828/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 14100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +3.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/08/20258th16/116%0%-0.16
06/10/20255th33/10%33%+0.33
03/11/20259th50/10%0%0.00
20/06/20264th10/147%25%-0.22
26/06/202610th40/10%0%0.00
24/07/20263rd20/10%75%+0.75
07/08/20262nd12/137%88%+0.51
28/08/20266th6/168%50%-0.18