3
Carrick On Stage
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 66
Woodbine · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1431% of fieldRange 10-14 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -4.7% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 10th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/11/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 29% | -0.19 |
| 28/11/2025 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 13/12/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 31/05/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |
| 12/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 26/06/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 22% | +0.06 |
| 20/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 75% | +0.12 |
| 09/08/2026 | 4th | 13/8 | 91% | 40% | -0.51 |
| 28/08/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 57% | +0.20 |