Celestial Heart
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 70
Woodbine · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 4.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-23 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-08-07 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-07-24 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-07-06 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-06-06 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 10/05/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 23/05/2026 | 2nd | 40/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 06/06/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 55% | +0.07 |
| 06/07/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 57% | -0.19 |
| 24/07/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 63% | +0.10 |
| 07/08/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 38% | +0.11 |
| 23/08/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 11/09/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |