4
Joshua Strike
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 67
Woodbine · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 1m
#12
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼2
Strength59%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-08-07 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-07-24 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-06-07 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1446% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength97%
Delivery trend +7.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/06/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 24/07/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 07/08/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 28/08/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |