Messy Riding
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 54
Woodbine · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
15%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 6.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-28 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-07-06 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2026-06-12 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +4.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/06/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |
| 06/07/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 20/07/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 28/08/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 22% | +0.06 |
| 11/09/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 80% | +0.17 |