Beach Cricket
4yo Filly · 8-13 · OR 79
Woodbine · Race 5 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
26%
Place Prob
32%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 4.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-07-05 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-06-05 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-05-02 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-04-19 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +5.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 06/11/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |
| 22/11/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |
| 19/04/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 25% | -0.49 |
| 02/05/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 57% | -0.01 |
| 05/06/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 90% | +0.06 |
| 05/07/2026 | 4th | 5/4 | 93% | 57% | -0.36 |
| 02/08/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 06/09/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |