IvyArcIvyArc
3

Spicy Bourbon

3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 73

Woodbine · Race 5 - Claiming · 1m 110y

#2

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

72%

Place Prob

53%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength44%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC7 @ Woodbine 23/05/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR - · 7f Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS23/05C7C7 @ Woodbine 04/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 61 · 1m 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 61 par4/07C7OR 61C7 @ Woodbine 27/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 70 · 1m110y Fm 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 70 par27/08C7OR 70projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-27Woodbine?1st0th+1
2026-07-04Woodbine?3rd2nd+1
2026-05-23Woodbine?11th10th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/054/0727/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +45.5% per run

What the projection says

Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/05/202611th6/168%9%-0.59
04/07/20263rd14/126%71%+0.45
27/08/20261st6/168%100%+0.32