10
Top Of D Mountain
4yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 79
Woodbine · Race 5 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength44%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.6 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-23 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-02 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-09-12 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-08-16 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-08-02 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength59%
Delivery trend -0.6% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 6th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/11/2024 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 63% | +0.15 |
| 07/12/2024 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |
| 21/06/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 02/08/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 16/08/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 90% | +0.11 |
| 12/09/2025 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 89% | -0.03 |
| 02/05/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 86% | -0.04 |
| 23/08/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 11/09/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 86% | +0.03 |