7
Arya's Quest
5yo Mare · 8-9 · OR 81
Woodbine · Race 6 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-06-26 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength22%
Delivery trend -13.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/12/2024 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 26/04/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 71% | +0.56 |
| 22/05/2025 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 08/05/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 24/05/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 26/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |
| 18/07/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 06/08/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 14% | -0.59 |
| 27/08/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |